Centenary elections 2007: Who will the next Prime Minister be?
The most burning question in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Finland is which party will emerge as the biggest writes Kyösti Karvonen, Managing Editor of the newspaper Kaleva.
The Floor of the Parliment Picture: Finland's Parliament
When Finns aged 18 or more go to the polls on Sunday, March 18, it will not be just another day in the history of the country’s democracy. The date will mark almost exactly 100 years since March 15-16, 1907, when the first elections ever were held in which all Finns over the age of 24 were entitled to vote and to stand for office.
Universal suffrage was a huge development , especially for Finland’s women. With this radical reform they became the first women in Europe to gain the vote. It was a great change for Finland’s men, too, since most of them had not been entitled to vote or stand for office previously either, not being members of the four Estates.
The unicameral 200-member parliament elected in spring 1907 included 19 women. Since then, the percentage of women in the legislature has increased steadily, and the parliament approaching the end of its present term includes 76 women — over a third of the members. There is no longer a single high government office in Finland that has never been held by a woman.
NO MAJOR CAUSES OF DISCONTENT
The celebratory nature of the elections does not mean that they will not be for real. The result of the elections will determine how easy — or difficult — it will be to form the next government. Because Finland does not have a simple two-party system, the winner in parliamentary elections (i.e.the party that wins the most seats in parliament) does not automatically form a government, nor do the less successful parties automatically end up in the opposition.
Two of the three largest parties are always needed to form a majority government, and accordingly the new government may well be formed by winner and loser together. Because of this dependence on the three dominant parties, Finland’s domestic politics are very stable and predictable. This stability is strengthened by the fact that governments usually include parties from both sides of the political divide. That is the crucial reason why Finland’s domestic politics operate very differently from those of neighbouring Sweden.
The key question in the elections is which party will win most seats in parliament. The chairman of that party will have priority in opening talks on the formation of a government and will very probably be chosen by parliament to be Prime Minister for the new four-year electoral period.
Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen Picture: Lehtikuva/Prime Minister's Office
Finland’s second EU Presidency, which ended on the last day of 2006, had the effect of postponing campaigning for the parliamentary elections until now, and also toned down domestic politicking.
Indeed, the campaign may turn out to be relatively subdued up to the end. This may be inferred from the fact that the parliamentary debate on this year’s budget towards the end of 2006 was unusually amicable, even though elections were only a few months away. Another factor that restrained electioneering was the assertion by the major parties, well in advance, that the issue of NATO membership would not be brought up seriously in the electoral period soon to begin. These elections will thus not be about NATO.
Moreover, the Finnish economy grew briskly, by about 6%, last year. Official figures put unemployment lower now than at any point in the past 15 years, and taxation has been eased. . Hence there are no causes of discontent among the people of Finland big enough to awaken calls for profound political change.
THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT MIGHT STAY ON
Given the prevailing situation the general view is that the present majority government formed by the Centre Party and the SDP, which has been in office for the past four years, could well stay on for for the next four. This would mean that the third major party, the moderate conservative National Coalition, would remain in opposition.
Minister of Finance Eero Heinäluoma Picture: Lehtikuva/Prime Minister's office
It is also easy to predict that the Swedish People's Party (SPP), representing Finland's Swedish-speaking minority, will stay on as the third party in what the Finns call the "red soil" coalition. . Despite a slight dip in its ratings, the SPP is a well-established government party. It is indicative of the party's special status that its chairman, Jan-Erik Enestam, who recently stepped down, held a ministerial post continuously for almost 4,400 days, placing him fifth on the list of longest-serving ministers in Finland.
Like many an earlier parliamentary election, this one will no doubt turn out to be about the premiership. Most attention will focus on whether Matti Vanhanen, leader of the Centre Party, will continue as Prime Minister or whether the SDP will gain a larger percentage of the vote, in which case its leader, Minister of Finance Eero Heinäluoma, would become the new Prime Minister.
Recent opinion polls have the SDP and the Centre Party running neck and neck. Four years ago, the Centre Party assumed the leading position in Finnish politics with a small margin of about 6,000 votes over the SDP.
The ratings of the National Coalition Party have levelled out after an earlier upward trend, and it would be a great surprise if the party managed to surpass either of the two larger ones. And because the Centre Party and the SDP have worked together so well in government, it will be difficult for the National Coalition Party to break the bond. Normally, in the run-up to an election, the Centre Party and the National Coalition Party engage in tactical pronouncements about the possibility of a centre-right government but this time,so far at least, little has been said on the subject.
VANHANEN VS HEINÄLUOMA
Because the Centre Party and the SDP in particular are so equally balanced as they go towards these elections, what is crucial for their figureheads — Vanhanen and Heinäluoma — is how the two conduct their individual campaigns including their performances in the television debates that are considered vital for success. Both politicians have their strengths and their weaknesses.
Vanhanen became Prime Minister almost by accident but quickly grew into the demanding role. He is, however, somewhat encumbered by his poor showing in the presidential election and by his colourful private life. And during Finland’s EU Presidency, he was overshadowed by Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja and also by President Tarja Halonen.
For the SDP, the question is whether the party will do well in the elections thanks to Heinäluoma or despite him. So far, Heinäluoma has not measured up to the stature of his predecessor, Paavo Lipponen. In opinion polls measuring the popularity of potential Prime Ministers, Heinäluoma trails far behind Vanhanen and even behind Jyrki Katainen, leader of the National Coalition Party.
Katainen, however, has his own burden to carry. While the National Coalition Party has nominated him as its candidate for the premiership , the credibility of this decision has been called into question. That is because Sauli Niinistö, the close runner-up in the last presidential election and subsequently a Vice-President of the European Investment Bank, decided after a great deal of vacillating to stand for parliament after all.
A former leader of his party, Niinistö will stand in the largest constituency, Uusimaa, the region around Helsinki. He is likely to win more votes than any other candidate in the entire country, and enable perhaps one or two ‘extra’ National Coalition candidates to be elected in his wake. Niinistö intends to conduct a high-profile nationwide campaign, which further complicates Katainen’s position as his party’s prime ministerial candidate. Niinistö will boost his party and erode the status of its chairman at the same time.
KYÖSTI KARVONEN, Managing Editor of the newspaper Kaleva
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